Newark the evening before

Roger Helmer reports that there’s a “real live fire engine” going around Newark with UKIP signage.” Hmmmmm – is it indicative or just wishful thinking for UKIP? No doubt RH did meet all those UKIP voters but they still might be the 27%.

Just to summarize before the event – the results last time were:

Conservative: 54%
Labour: 22%
Lib Dem: 20%
UKIP: 4%
____________
Near 100% – no other parties?

Lord Ashcroft’s Tory poll had it:

Conservative: 42%
UKIP: 27%
Labour: 20%
Lib Dem: 6%
____________
95%

Survation has:

Conservative: 36%
UKIP: 28%
Labour: 27%
Lib Dem: 5%
____________
96%

Political Betting have suggested that those who wouldn’t have voted UKIP now detest it further, whereas many who were lukewarm before have been determined to vote UKIP “just to show the bstds in Westminster”.

In favour of the Tories is the inundation of MPs and activists, UKIP falling off the front pages as the Gove v May thing gets going, the Queen’s Speech, things other than Newark, voters retreating to former positions and UKIP still not having the policies of a governing party plus the Tories having a huge lead to defend.

Playing the class card was an error plus those posters were garish. This is a Tory area.

Having said all that, nationally UKIP is between 14% and 19% and up to 28% in a protest situation. Tomorrow is a mix of the two – those separating national elections from the EU and council, those who are still determined to protest.

Laugh me to oblivion Friday morning but this is my best guess, given all the aforementioned:

Conservative: 34-36%
UKIP: 29-31%
Labour: 25-27%
Lib Dem: 5-7%
Other: 3%

That counts on a late surge towards UKIP from the uncommitted.

For the run-up to May 2015, both major parties, no matter what happens tomorrow, have big worries with UKIP, especially as UKIP hammers out a full range of costed policies, if there are no stupidities and Nigel stays calm and collected. Seems to me they’ll only increase their vote from the undecideds.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/newark/
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/05/29/the-first-newark-by-election-opinion-poll-is-out/
http://politicalscrapbook.net/2014/06/lord-ashcroft-newark-polling-gives-tories-15-point-lead/

One Response to “Newark the evening before”

  1. andy5759 June 4, 2014 at 23:01 Permalink

    You may have it right with your prediction. If the dyed in the wool, die hard Tories decide to protest, the top two might just be a bit closer.

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