Parliament – let’s do some number crunching

How the MPs fall:

https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/mps/current-state-of-the-parties/



https://beta.parliament.uk/houses/1AFu55Hs/parties/UeAtkxYY/members/current

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1155969/brexit-latest-news-tories-boris-johnson-no-deal-Brexit-tory-leadership

If just two Tory MPs switch their alliance to the anti-Brexit Party, this would prevent the next Prime Minister, who will be named on Tuesday, getting a parliamentary majority. Ed Davey, who was Lib Dem energy minister in the coalition cabinet with the Conservatives, has reportedly been approached by remainer Tories, according to The Sunday Times. They will now hold talks this week in a bid to derail the next Tory leader, either through a vote of no confidence or Tory leaders defecting to another party.

https://www.parliament.uk/about/living-heritage/evolutionofparliament/parliamentwork/offices-and-ceremonies/overview/prorogation1/prorogation/

Scenarios

#  Kate Hoey goes to Brexit Party and stays as Independent in parliamentary terms.

#  Hammond goes LibDem.  One more goes with him and the govt can’t pass legislation.

#  Beth Rigby: Here we go. @margot_james_mp told me on Thurs after she resigned from govt that she expected more ministers to follow her because they would be unable to serve under Johnson & his do or die Oct 31 Brexit plan.

#  David Gauke tonight confirms that he will resign from the cabinet next Wednesday after PMQs because he can’t serve Boris Johnson while he pursues no deal.

#  Boris goes to the Queen to ask to prorogue parliament or asks to dissolve parliament with a view to a GE.

#  The preselection then becomes everything.

#  Brexit Party then comes into play, picking up rebel Labour seats.

#  Or this:

#  Your alternative scenario.

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